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CENTCOM says traffic flowing through Strait of Hormuz
U.S. position
CENTCOM reported that commercial and energy traffic was moving through the waterway, and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said oil flows had approached pre-conflict levels. These claims focus mainly on cargo volumes rather than the total number and regularity of vessel passages.[9]
Iranian position
Iranian Revolutionary Guards adviser Mohammad Reza Naghdi said Iran retained control and would maintain restrictions until Tehran’s demands were satisfied. That position suggests that any formal reopening remains tied to negotiations, not merely to operational shipping arrangements.[9]
Flows versus normality
Shipping analysts caution that escorts, transfers between vessels and rerouted logistics can restore some crude supply without recreating normal maritime conditions. Consequently, oil exports may recover before general vessel traffic does.[1][9]
Outlook
The timing of a full recovery therefore depends on both security conditions and a political arrangement. With those issues unresolved and traffic still well below the benchmark, no specific month can be forecast confidently.[1][9]