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Strait of Hormuz Traffic: Make This Polymarket Trade
Normalization Test
The article translates the question into a specific threshold: normal traffic means a seven-day average of at least 60 transits per day before year-end. Against that benchmark, the latest daily count cited in the piece was only eight.
That gap shows how far the strait still is from routine operations. Even if traffic improves from current lows, it would need a steep and sustained rebound to qualify as normal by the end of the year.
Market Skepticism
The market odds cited in the article implied only an 18% chance of reaching that threshold by Dec. 31. While that is not an official forecast, it reflects informed skepticism about a quick recovery.
For readers trying to infer a month, the message is clear: December is possible in theory, but market pricing treats it as unlikely. That makes an earlier month even less plausible.
Outlook
This piece does not provide a news forecast from officials, but it does show how traders are thinking about the problem. The distance between current traffic and the normalization benchmark suggests a long climb, not a near-term snapback.
So the most defensible answer from the latest coverage is that no month can yet be confidently named. If anything, the market view leans against a full return to normal by the end of the year.