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Kalshi·July 2, 2026
Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Broader field
The broader field matters because early nomination races often begin with more names than eventual serious contenders. Even if Vance and Rubio are the main focus now, interest in figures like Hawley shows that the party has not fully settled on its post-Trump direction.
Front-runner test
That uncertainty gives the early frontrunners both an advantage and a vulnerability. They get the most attention, but they also face the highest burden to prove they can unite the party rather than merely lead a faction.
Early sorting
The next phase will likely be defined by who turns speculation into an actual campaign structure. As that happens, names that look relevant in polls or markets today may quickly fade if they do not build real networks in key states.