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Crude oil exports via Hormuz at 33.7 million barrels this week as vessel traffic remains weak
Current traffic
Recent reporting shows traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is still depressed, with just 9 vessel transits on Sept. 25 and a 10-day average of 18, compared with roughly 125 large vessels per day before the conflict. That gap indicates the disruption is still significant and not yet moving back toward normal levels.
Timing outlook
The biggest signal on timing comes from Reuters’ Sept. 4 report, which quoted a shipping-source expectation that flows could remain very low until November. That is not a formal forecast, but it is the clearest recent estimate on when conditions might start improving.
Why it matters
The persistence of low traffic appears tied to ongoing regional tension and caution among operators, who are likely weighing security risks and insurance costs. Even if movements begin recovering, a full normalization would probably lag the first signs of improvement.
What to watch
For now, the best answer is that Strait of Hormuz traffic is not expected to return to normal in September, and the most recent reporting points to November as the earliest rough benchmark for a recovery window. Continued weekly ship-tracking data will be the key indicator to watch.