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Middle East crude oil exports exceed pre-war levels but tanker attacks increase
What happened
Crude exports from the Middle East exceeded pre-war levels on several days in late September, while LNG cargoes leaving the strait reached their highest monthly level since February. That recovery includes shipments using alternative routes, offshore transfers, and other methods that do not necessarily represent normal Strait traffic.[15]
Why traffic lags
At the same time, attacks on tankers continued, with maritime authorities reporting repeated incidents in and around the strait. The security environment remains unpredictable enough to deter many commercial operators, even as some flows resume.[15][16]
Likely timeline
The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects oil production and trade flows to move close to pre-conflict levels by the end of 2026 under its scenario that the conflict does not persist. Its earlier outlook placed restoration of most disrupted production in the first quarter of 2027, suggesting that late 2026 is the earliest plausible window for broad improvement rather than a guaranteed normalization date.[11][12][14]
Best current answer
Prediction-market pricing is considerably more pessimistic: it assigns roughly an 82% to 83% probability that traffic will not return to its defined normal threshold during 2026, with December the leading individual month but still carrying only a small probability.[1][2][4]