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Strait of Hormuz Ship Crossings Remain in Single Digits
Current crossings
Four vessels crossed on the reported Tuesday, down from seven the previous day and well below the 10-day average. The sample included an LPG carrier and a naphtha tanker, illustrating that selected cargoes are moving but not at normal scale.[16]
Why measures differ
The low and fluctuating counts contrast with reports of strong regional crude exports. This discrepancy reflects the use of nonstandard routes, ship-to-ship transfers, and selective voyages rather than a broad restoration of routine traffic.[15][16]
Conditions for recovery
For traffic to normalize, operators would need confidence that the security threat, insurance burden, and political restrictions had stabilized. Repeated attacks make that confidence difficult to establish quickly.[15][16]
Timing outlook
The evidence therefore favors no full return to normal in the immediate months. A sustained improvement late in 2026 is possible, but early 2027 remains a more credible window for a complete recovery if the security situation remains unsettled.[12][14]