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Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?
Current odds
Market result
How it is defined
The market lists no return to normal traffic in 2026 as the dominant outcome, at approximately 84%. Among the named months, December is ahead of November but remains a low-probability outcome.[2]
Why the odds matter
Resolution is tied to IMF PortWatch data: normal traffic requires a seven-day moving average of at least 60 transit calls. The qualifying month would be the calendar month containing the first data point meeting that threshold.[3]
Limitations
The pricing reflects traders’ assessment that a temporary reopening is not enough to restore routine commercial shipping. Sustained traffic at the specified threshold would require confidence among operators, insurers and cargo owners.
What comes next
These are market-implied probabilities, not verified forecasts. They can change quickly with diplomatic agreements, security developments or fresh traffic data, and should be read alongside direct shipping and government data.