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Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?
What is happening
Traffic remains depressed
Why normalization is distant
Vessel movements through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen dramatically from pre-disruption levels. Some commercial and energy shipments are moving, but the volume remains nowhere near the threshold used by the prediction market to define normal traffic.[1][3]
Most likely timing
The market’s benchmark requires an IMF PortWatch seven-day moving average of at least 60 transit calls. Recent reported averages have been only a few transits per day, leaving a substantial gap that would require a rapid and sustained recovery.[2][3]
What could change
The leading outcome is that traffic will not reach the benchmark in any month of 2026. Among the named months, December currently leads, followed by November, but both remain low-probability scenarios.[1][2]
Sources and limits
A durable reopening would likely require a meaningful reduction in security risks and agreement on the political conditions affecting access. Conflicting statements from U.S. officials and Iranian representatives suggest that increased flows should not yet be treated as a stable return to normal operations.[4][6]
How to interpret it
The month estimates are prediction-market probabilities, not official forecasts. The underlying resolution depends on IMF PortWatch data and a specific seven-day traffic threshold, so the market question’s definition of “normal” may differ from industry expectations.[2]