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Strait of Hormuz Prediction Markets and Live Odds 2026
Month-by-month odds
The market listed approximately a 1% chance of normal traffic by October 31 and about an 8% chance by November 30. The probability for normalization by December 31 was higher, at roughly 18%, but still below one in five.[10]
December lead
The separate month-selection market assigned about 83% to no return to normal traffic during 2026 and around 7% to December. These figures indicate that December leads only because it is the final available month, not because a recovery is expected with confidence.[10]
Limits of estimate
Prediction markets are not official forecasts and can move with news, liquidity, and trader positioning. Their value here is as a real-time indicator of expectations amid limited visibility on security conditions and shipper behavior.[1][10]
Current answer
The most accurate current answer is therefore: no month is reliably expected in 2026; December is the most likely individual month if normalization occurs before year-end, while a later recovery appears more probable.[1][10]